CoinShares analyst Luke Nolan wrote in the firm’s Q2 2026 mining report that “a BTC recovery is unlikely to reverse the AI transition” among listed miners that have redirected sites and power toward high-performance computing. For related coverage, see Strive Adds 1,375 Bitcoin to Its Holdings .
A Bitcoin price recovery is unlikely to pull AI-focused miners back toward hashing, according to a CoinShares research report published September 15, 2026, which argues that the industry’s pivot from proof-of-work toward artificial-intelligence workloads has become structural rather than cyclical.
What to know
- CoinShares says a Bitcoin price recovery is unlikely to lure AI-focused miners back to mining.
- The assessment concerns AI-focused miners specifically and should not be generalized to all Bitcoin miners.
CoinShares: Bitcoin price recovery unlikely to bring AI-focused miners back
CoinShares analyst Luke Nolan wrote in the firm’s Q2 2026 mining report that “a BTC recovery is unlikely to reverse the AI transition” among listed miners that have redirected sites and power toward high-performance computing. For related coverage, see Strive Adds 1,375 Bitcoin to Its Holdings.
The assessment is a qualified forecast attributed to CoinShares, not an observed outcome, and it applies to operators that have already committed capacity to AI. Nolan noted that renewed mining investment is more likely to come from Riot, MARA, HIVE and Bitdeer, which retained greater flexibility. For related coverage, see Reporting Bitcoin Scammers: Chainabuse and Scamwatch Guide.
The report frames the shift as economically anchored rather than a reaction to any single price level. At the time of writing, Bitcoin traded near $76,323, down roughly 2.7% over 24 hours, a level that does not by itself signal any return to hashing.
Why AI-focused miners may stay with AI
The core reason CoinShares gives is margin. The report estimates annualised profits of roughly US$1.5 million per MW for AI workloads, against about US$0.5 million per MW for Bitcoin mining, a gap the firm treats as an estimate rather than an audited universal margin.
≈US$1.5m per MW
That mining comparison of roughly US$0.5 million per MW sets the baseline against which operators weigh converting sites away from proof-of-work.
≈US$0.5m per MW
The capital commitments compound the switching cost. CoinShares reported that Core Scientific paid US$41.9 million to terminate its Proto agreement, cancelling approximately 15 EH/s of hardware deliveries, while several companies have committed sites to 15-year leases. Bitcoin mining hardware cannot perform AI workloads, so conversion means new infrastructure rather than reprogrammed rigs.
Those conversions are expensive. The report puts AI-grade conversion at an estimated US$8 million to US$15 million per MW, against US$0.7 million to US$1 million per MW for mining, a spread that makes an AI commitment costly to unwind.
Adoption of the AI thesis is still early relative to signed demand. CoinShares reported more than 4GW of contracted IT capacity but only around 550MW billing, with an outlook citing more than US$100 billion in contracts against roughly US$1.1 billion of annualised AI and HPC revenue.
What the outlook means for Bitcoin mining
The assessment concerns whether miners return to hashing, not a directional call on Bitcoin’s price. Mining economics have already improved from the Q2 trough: monthly average hash price reached US$27.7/PH/s/day in June before recovering to around US$38/PH/s/day as Bitcoin rebounded to roughly US$77,000, per the report.
Even with that recovery, margins remain tight against costs. CoinShares reported a weighted average ex-tax cash cost of about US$75,500 per BTC among listed miners in Q2 2026, close to current spot levels and relevant context for stories tracking Bitcoin’s path toward $80,000.
CoinShares does leave an exception. Nolan wrote that “a sustained rise in the bitcoin price could alter this calculus dramatically, however, and prompt some miners to recommit capacity to mining.”
That flexibility is unevenly distributed, concentrated among operators like Riot, MARA, HIVE and Bitdeer that did not lock into long leases. The dynamic sits alongside broader corporate accumulation stories, from Strive’s move past 25,000 BTC to KULR’s exit from its holdings, that shape demand independent of hashrate decisions.
Broad market sentiment remains firm despite the pullback, with the Fear & Greed Index reading 69, or “Greed,” on September 15. Evaluating any reversal would require confirmed miner operating plans and sourced profitability comparisons rather than price action alone; changes to network hashrate or difficulty cannot be inferred from the CoinShares forecast itself.
Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial or investment advice. Cryptocurrency and digital asset markets carry significant risk. Always do your own research before making decisions.
